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Prediction markets for Enemy

Supreme Court rules unanimously to uphold Federal Judge's block on Trump's use of Alien Enemies Act

Mar 18, 2:40 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

14.21%chance

321952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?

Dec 14, 5:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.88%chance

181592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2143

467

Conditional on AGI being available by 2045, will Eliezer Yudkowsky be declared enemy #1 by the AI during the first 60 days?

Feb 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6.63%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

931

Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?

Feb 11, 4:48 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

36.83%chance

4890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

764

Will the USA have lasers in space capable of destroying enemy satellites by 2027?

Apr 16, 5:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.23%chance

13652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

940

How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025?

Mar 18, 11:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6280

OptionProbability

500 or fewer

501-5000

5001-50,000

More than 50,000

35

33

19

14

Will any Alien Enemies Act victims be returned from El Salvador to US before 2035?

Apr 3, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.29%chance

8217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will a Trump administration imprison a journalist, a politician, or an "enemy of the state" before the 2026 midterms?

Nov 14, 9:55 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

83.06%chance

7215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

45

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2028?

Aug 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.77%chance

290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2027?

Aug 26, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Enemy-Combatant Detention of a U.S. Citizen by 31 Dec 2025?

Jun 18, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Is it okay to attack a hospital filled with wounded members of the enemy and no civilians?

Nov 16, 2:21 PM

670

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