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Prediction markets for Enforcement

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4569704

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

77

50

0

0

0

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

7.9%chance

183860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3414

293

If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up?

Jun 8, 5:39 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

37.01%chance

262525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will there be a credible assassination attempt on Elon Musk confirmed by law enforcement by the end of 2025?

Sep 17, 2:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.14%chance

301888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

35

Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

34%chance

11621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?

Jan 21, 5:23 PMJan 29, 6:59 AM

63.7%chance

11489

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

75

Will legislation be passed into law that lays out process for enforcing 14th amendment during the 119th congress?

Mar 23, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.55%chance

10355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

132

Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?

Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.57%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

876

Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

Dec 25, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

8173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

150

Will the UK pressure credit card processors to enforce content censorship on Signal?

Mar 22, 8:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

30.24%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

154

What route order will be enforced in Tsukihime -The other side of red garden-?

Feb 14, 1:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

216

OptionProbability

Hisui -> Kohaku -> Akiha -> Satsuki

Multiple possible route orders

Other

Akiha -> Hisui -> Kohaku -> Satsuki

35

22

22

21

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