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Prediction markets for Enterprise AI

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.46%chance

405138836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3291

304

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8213590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5293

2022

Will Google acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026 ?

Jan 4, 1:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

0.03%chance

286950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5413

2

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

43.17%chance

223650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4443

3625

Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?

May 5, 6:40 PMSep 30, 10:00 PM

86%chance

12709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

21

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027?

Aug 20, 12:44 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

92.43%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

29

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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