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Prediction markets for Enterprise Data

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.79%chance

4612947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

674

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.07%chance

191743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2130

470

Will we get commercialized optical disks with >=200TiB storage capacity? If so, when?

Feb 24, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

151678

OptionProbability

2031- or never

2029-30

2027-2028

2026-2027

2024-2025

55

22

17

6

1

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

In which year will the first extraterrestrially mined material arrive on Earth?

Jun 29, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.21%chance

4137

OptionProbability

YES

NO

392

273

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

Jan 20, 3:03 PMJan 15, 4:00 PM

40.47%chance

274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

82

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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