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By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

86.42%chance

361308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

874

Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?

Mar 19, 9:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.99%chance

291162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

787

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.94%chance

14898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

695

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.06%chance

14841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

692

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025?

Apr 1, 7:26 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.58%chance

26832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

923

Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?

Jun 22, 5:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.34%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

683

428

Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025?

Mar 11, 2:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.59%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

101

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?

Sep 13, 5:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?

May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

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