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Top stories

Solana Validators Weigh Alpenglow Upgrade to Slash Finality to 150ms

Solana Validators Weigh Alpenglow Upgrade to Slash Finality to 150ms

Authors

14

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Epoch

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4797480

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 225

Above 200

Above 250

100

94

6

3

2

2

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19281731

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Other

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Alibaba

46

43

6

2

1

1

1

0

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6475919

OptionProbability

170-175

175-180

165-170

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

160-165

66

19

6

4

2

1

1

1

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.97%chance

6320205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4878

205

When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?

Aug 30, 1:42 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

309586

OptionProbability

November 2026

December 2026

October 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

Other

September 2026

90

4

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030?

Mar 9, 4:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

2%chance

207910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7284

444

Will there be a plateau on the Epoch Capabilities Index before the end of 2027?

Oct 29, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

5539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?

Oct 8, 8:49 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM

9329

OptionProbability

4% to under 6% (3–4 solved)

9% or higher (7+ solved)

Under 4% (no model beats GPT-6 Astra's 2 of 68)

6% to under 9% (5–6 solved)

87

6

4

3

What will the top score on the CritPt research-physics benchmark be on November 30, 2026? (Epoch AI)

Nov 1, 5:40 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

2101

OptionProbability

46% or higher

Below 38%

38% to below 42%

42% to below 46%

84

5

5

5

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

Highest Slay the Spire 2 (Ascension 10) win rate on Epoch AI's SpireClimb benchmark on November 30, 2026?

Oct 29, 5:31 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

Below 35% (GPT-6 Astra's 34.7% still on top)

35% to under 45%

45% to under 60%

60% or higher

40

25

20

15

What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

88% or higher

25

25

25

25

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