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Top stories

Solana Validators Weigh Alpenglow Upgrade to Slash Finality to 150ms

Solana Validators Weigh Alpenglow Upgrade to Slash Finality to 150ms

Authors

14

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Epoch

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3768844

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

100

65

6

6

5

4

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2439603

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

60 - 69.99%

70 - 79.99%

10 - 19.99%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

92

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3934507

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

31

26

20

7

7

6

1

1

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8227119

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

42

37

13

2

2

1

1

1

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.82%chance

5113818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1597

626

Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030?

Mar 9, 4:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

11.42%chance

202457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

705

When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)

Dec 23, 5:57 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

241091

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Later/Never

2025

93

8

5

3

1

Will the "Machinocene" be designated as a new geological epoch by 2060?

Mar 11, 12:41 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.02%chance

4439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

93

Will any AI model released before 2028 reach an Epoch general ECI of at least 200?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.3%chance

1250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5998

4750

Will a pre-2028 AI model release beat the Epoch general ECI record by at least 9 points?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

969

Will a Safe Superintelligence model hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

965

Will a model from a China-headquartered lab hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

987

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