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Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.33%chance

404056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

668

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.45%chance

132531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

709

Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?

Jul 22, 6:31 PMJul 24, 3:59 AM

53.62%chance

122213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.12%chance

371105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

887

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.22%chance

27922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

871

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

22817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

979

Will 2026 USAJMO Cutoffs for 10A+AIME I be less than or equal to 347.5?

Feb 6, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.05%chance

8674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

816

Largo's V₂O₅-equivalent production in 2027 at least 20% higher than 2024?

Nov 26, 5:42 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

55.94%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

887

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

127

OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit?

Dec 26, 1:16 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

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