EQS News

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.06%chance

414059

OptionVotes

YES

1578

660

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112773

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?

Jul 22, 6:31 PMJul 24, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

142626

OptionVotes

YES

1244

804

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.45%chance

132531

OptionVotes

YES

1411

709

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

1265

930

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.12%chance

371105

OptionVotes

YES

1247

887

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.22%chance

27922

OptionVotes

YES

1346

871

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

22817

OptionVotes

YES

1059

979

Largo's V₂O₅-equivalent production in 2027 at least 20% higher than 2024?

Nov 26, 5:42 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

56.01%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

153

127

OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit?

Dec 26, 1:16 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

EQS News

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

AI Singularity (props)

Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Largo's V₂O₅-equivalent production in 2027 at least 20% higher than 2024?

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit?

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