EQS News

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.31%chance

414089

OptionVotes

YES

1596

612

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

142992

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?

Jul 22, 6:31 PMJul 24, 3:59 AM

37.41%chance

152676

OptionVotes

YES

1294

773

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

421303

OptionVotes

YES

1266

930

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.09%chance

391118

OptionVotes

YES

1248

887

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.22%chance

27922

OptionVotes

YES

1346

871

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

Sep 10, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.14%chance

22917

OptionVotes

YES

1159

827

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

1153

907

Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?

May 16, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.09%chance

4340

OptionVotes

YES

1023

985

Largo's V₂O₅-equivalent production in 2027 at least 20% higher than 2024?

Nov 26, 5:42 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

56.01%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

3116

OptionVotes

YES

153

127

EQS News

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Prediction markets for EQS

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

AI Singularity (props)

Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Will Israel authorize the sale of offensive military equipment to Ukraine?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?

Largo's V₂O₅-equivalent production in 2027 at least 20% higher than 2024?

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

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