Equal Weight News

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

English

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Spanish

Modern Standard Arabic

Other

French

Bengali

Portugese

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Indonesian

Esperanto

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Russian

German

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A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

Manifold

21-25

16-20

11-15

26-30

31-35

Other

36-40

6-10

1-5

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

Increase

Stays the same

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[20%, 30%)

Doesn't converge

[30%, 40%)

[50%, 60%)

[70%, 80%)

[80%, 90%)

[40%, 50%)

[60%, 70%)

William J. Clinton

George H. W. Bush

Ulysses S. Grant

George W. Bush

Barack Obama

John F. Kennedy

Andrew Jackson

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Ronald Reagan

Lyndon B. Johnson

Jimmy Carter

Thomas Jefferson

Woodrow Wilson

Harry S. Truman

Richard M. Nixon

Donald J. Trump

Herbert Hoover

NO

YES