Equality Act News

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191701

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Deal with minimal concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Venezuela-style puppet state

Balkanization/long civil war

Popular takeover

Voluntary transition of power

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

Jan 4, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.77%chance

4988

OptionVotes

YES

1791

558

HIRE Act passes by 2026

Sep 20, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.31%chance

6437

OptionVotes

YES

385

Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?

Jun 3, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

4426

OptionVotes

YES

510

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?

May 11, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

3170

OptionProbability

Settles out of court

NYT wins

EEOC wins

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

Medical/Healthcare

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Society

Space Exploration

Art and culture

Human Rights

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Equality Act News

Prediction markets for Equality Act

Prediction markets for Equality Act

Prediction markets for Equality Act

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Will surrogacy be partially or fully tax deductible in the US for federal taxes by EoY 2029

HIRE Act passes by 2026

Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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