OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
510
20
1041
961
196
51
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
Settles out of court
NYT wins
EEOC wins
25
Geopolitics
Technology
Economy
Medical/Healthcare
Fundamental research
Environment and sustainability
Society
Space Exploration
Art and culture
Human Rights
Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid
76
75
74
50
34
122
82