ER News

Erudite Stock

Oct 26, 9:35 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

21431225923

OptionProbability

YES

2894

2387

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.95%chance

427168325

OptionVotes

YES

12207

4763

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293258

OptionProbability

YES

2070

1794

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

356265

OptionProbability

Other

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.65%chance

82034

OptionProbability

YES

6595

4032

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Dec 31, 9:59 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

37.83%chance

231449

OptionVotes

YES

2717

1366

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Mar 2, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16300

OptionProbability

Other

Wang Yang

Ding Xuexiang

Li Qiang

Xi Jinping

Chen Jining

Cai Qi

Wang Huning

Wang Yi

No one

Huang Kunming

Li Xi

Hu Chunhua

Chen Min'er

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Jul 6, 5:14 PMJul 8, 3:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:12 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM

54.47%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

130

112

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Oct 9, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

Dec 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

OptionProbability

Above 5

ER News

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Erudite Stock

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

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