ER News

Erudite Stock

Oct 26, 9:35 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

21431223459

OptionProbability

YES

2891

2398

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

359130811

OptionVotes

YES

2199

2191

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293239

OptionProbability

YES

2090

1762

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

346121

OptionProbability

Other

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

1483

783

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.4%chance

61933

OptionProbability

YES

6496

4097

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Dec 31, 9:59 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

55.59%chance

22689

OptionVotes

YES

2028

1960

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Mar 2, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

14239

OptionProbability

Other

Wang Yang

Ding Xuexiang

Li Qiang

Cai Qi

Wang Huning

Wang Yi

No one

Xi Jinping

Chen Jining

Huang Kunming

Li Xi

Hu Chunhua

Chen Min'er

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Jul 6, 5:14 PMJul 8, 3:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:12 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM

54.47%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

130

112

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Oct 9, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

Dec 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

ER News

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Erudite Stock

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

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