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Prediction markets for ERA

Will Guadians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.30?

Mar 2, 8:07 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

74.66%chance

64696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1716

583

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will Luffy and the Straw Hat Pirates be the first crew to find the One Piece in the current era?

Mar 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.8%chance

131538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

604

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will marasi show up in mistborn era 3

Dec 22, 10:11 AMDec 29, 9:59 PM

72.59%chance

5717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

Will "In My Misanthropy Era" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 5, 11:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.71%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00

Mar 4, 7:07 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

35%chance

2135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

357

OptionProbability

Hawthorn

Brisbane Lions

Geelong Cats

Other

53

29

9

9

Will there be another major graveyard exhumation of a significant figure from the Three Kingdoms era in China by 2027?

Oct 5, 4:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

90

Two Bit DaVinci achieves 1 Mill followers by Mar. 1, 2027. His current video is "A New Era of Computer Chips Has Begun".

Jun 2, 12:49 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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