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Prediction markets for ERA

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will Guadians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.30?

Mar 2, 8:07 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

42.71%chance

52145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

863

Will Luffy and the Straw Hat Pirates be the first crew to find the One Piece in the current era?

Mar 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.8%chance

131538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

604

In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?

May 8, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24841

OptionProbability

Other

The Singularity

Post-Information Age

The internet age

Pre AGI period

Anthropocene

The Exponential Era

Second Interwar Period

Globalization era

Aluminium Age

Pre-caliphate

The Cosmic Exploration era

78

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will marasi show up in mistborn era 3

Dec 22, 10:11 AMDec 29, 9:59 PM

72.59%chance

5717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

When will the Superhero / Comic Book Movie Era end? 🦸‍♂⚡💥🦇🎥🎬🍿🥤🎞️

Mar 21, 10:07 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

12589

OptionProbability

2029 to 2032

2025 to 2028

After 2036

2033 to 2036

47

24

22

7

Is the era of hand-held laser weapons capable of burning holes through flesh in our future (i.e. before 2044)?

Oct 12, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.16%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

141

Will "In My Misanthropy Era" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 5, 11:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.71%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Will there be another major graveyard exhumation of a significant figure from the Three Kingdoms era in China by 2027?

Oct 5, 4:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

90

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Geelong Cats

Other

45

29

13

13

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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