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Prediction markets for ERA

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.8%chance

232005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

633

Will Luffy and the Straw Hat Pirates be the first crew to find the One Piece in the current era?

Mar 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.1%chance

131318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

651

In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?

May 8, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24841

OptionProbability

Other

The Singularity

Post-Information Age

The internet age

Pre AGI period

Anthropocene

The Exponential Era

Second Interwar Period

Globalization era

Aluminium Age

Pre-caliphate

The Cosmic Exploration era

78

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will marasi show up in mistborn era 3

Dec 22, 10:11 AMDec 29, 9:59 PM

72.59%chance

5717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

Which MLB players on the 2025 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Nov 4, 5:01 AMDec 6, 11:59 PM

7713

OptionProbability

Don Mattingly

Fernando Valenzuela

Carlos Delgado

Jeff Kent

Dale Murphy

Gary Sheffield

None of the above

Roger Clemens

Barry Bonds

66

64

32

32

32

32

32

31

28

Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?

Mar 5, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.1%chance

3402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

732

Is the era of hand-held laser weapons capable of burning holes through flesh in our future (i.e. before 2044)?

Oct 12, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.16%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

141

Will there be another major graveyard exhumation of a significant figure from the Three Kingdoms era in China by 2027?

Oct 5, 4:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

90

Will James Koppel log more than 10 hours on Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era by 2030?

Sep 3, 5:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Geelong Cats

Other

45

29

13

13

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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