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Prediction markets for ERA

Will Guadians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.30?

Mar 2, 8:07 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

21.89%chance

96340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1889

529

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will Luffy and the Straw Hat Pirates be the first crew to find the One Piece in the current era?

Mar 19, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.8%chance

131538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

604

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?

May 8, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24841

OptionProbability

Other

The Singularity

Post-Information Age

The internet age

Pre AGI period

Anthropocene

The Exponential Era

Second Interwar Period

Globalization era

Aluminium Age

Pre-caliphate

The Cosmic Exploration era

78

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00

Mar 4, 7:07 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

72%chance

5836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will marasi show up in mistborn era 3

Dec 22, 10:11 AMDec 29, 9:59 PM

72.59%chance

5717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

Will "In My Misanthropy Era" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 5, 11:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.71%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

951

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

479

OptionProbability

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Geelong Cats

Other

52

36

6

6

Will there be another major graveyard exhumation of a significant figure from the Three Kingdoms era in China by 2027?

Oct 5, 4:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

90

Will "“The Era of Experience” has an unsolved techn..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 7:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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