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Prediction markets for Ernie LLM

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

32.9%chance

311130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

686

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.01%chance

17767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

948

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

647

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

40.61%chance

17410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 11:08 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

27.27%chance

9378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

94

Elon Musk drafted to work on a project for USGov any time through 2031

Sep 18, 6:17 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

12.39%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

311

102

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Any of 7 ratcheting political or sports systems decreases

May 22, 5:01 PMApr 8, 6:59 AM

61.83%chance

456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

101

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