Ernie LLM News

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

15423

3517

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

244690

OptionProbability

GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

Trump visits greenland

GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

Greenland population falls below 40000

Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

Greenland has a military

20+ story building built

Greenland significantly changes its flag

Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

USD is the used currency

40+ story building built

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.55%chance

92127

OptionVotes

YES

2029

493

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

37.02%chance

331497

OptionVotes

YES

1174

749

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.47%chance

18867

OptionVotes

YES

1029

972

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.48%chance

4545

OptionVotes

YES

1545

647

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

1204

892

MLB player or team punished for illegal during-game use of AI by mid 2027

Apr 25, 10:01 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.37%chance

6465

OptionVotes

YES

545

102

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

1116

1014

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

246

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Illegal Agent-like LLM which automatically serves up links to copyrighted texts available by mid 2026

Feb 17, 7:42 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.58%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

144

Ernie LLM News

Prediction markets for Ernie LLM

Prediction markets for Ernie LLM

Prediction markets for Ernie LLM

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

MLB player or team punished for illegal during-game use of AI by mid 2027

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Illegal Agent-like LLM which automatically serves up links to copyrighted texts available by mid 2026

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