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Prediction markets for Escape

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

49.83%chance

15614666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2344

2047

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?

Jan 4, 10:47 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

2.61%chance

4510575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6118

309

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

Will GPT-4 escape?

Mar 17, 8:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5.4%chance

282132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2026

890

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

351593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

46.74%chance

201015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will "Would catching your AIs trying to escape conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 10:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.04%chance

3400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

729

Will "Maya's Escape" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.69%chance

3319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

958

Which organism will the first released or escaped gene drive target?

Jan 26, 8:15 AMDec 15, 7:59 AM

9199

OptionProbability

Mosquito

Other

Fruit fly

Screwworm

Fish

Human

Plant

Fungus

50

16

13

7

7

2

2

2

Will there be another news-breaking capybara escape in 2025?

Jul 13, 1:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.85%chance

462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will Jose Luis Ricon, @adic_9, Henry Bass, Geffen Avraham,and Claire Wang all play an escape room together by 2030?

Jul 29, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.53%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

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