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Prediction markets for Escapism

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.78%chance

17216760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

1649

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?

Dec 29, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

215115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4359

229

Will GPT-4 escape?

Mar 17, 8:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5.05%chance

292638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2159

883

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

Trump flees to Argentina to escape prosecution?

Oct 22, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.54%chance

9381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

459

22

Will "Maya's Escape" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.28%chance

4369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

952

US President states on video that COVID likely escaped from WIV, any time through 2026

Sep 22, 7:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.21%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

115

Will longevity escape velocity happen earlier for palm cockatoos than for hyacinth macaws?

Feb 5, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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