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Prediction markets for Escapism

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

58.17%chance

17416820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2741

1709

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?

Dec 29, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

216339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will GPT-4 escape?

Mar 17, 8:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5.05%chance

292638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2159

883

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

Did the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, ride a Citibike to escape after the crime?

Dec 6, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.42%chance

11915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

832

12

Standing US Government official at the NIH admits in a video that COVID likely escaped from WIV any time through 2026

Sep 22, 7:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.26%chance

10397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

316

54

Will "Maya's Escape" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.28%chance

4369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

952

An escaped population of cockatoos (any species) will establish itself in the US with >20 individuals by 2035

Apr 9, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.99%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

Will Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) happen earlier for 30 year olds than for 80 year olds?

May 17, 9:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

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