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Prediction markets for Escapism

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.33%chance

17717468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3435

1317

Will SBF escape from prison?

Dec 14, 1:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.06%chance

3014507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

920

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?

Dec 29, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.79%chance

218839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7399

135

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.28%chance

232201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2673

374

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030?

Jul 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

9790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

358

169

Will "Maya's Escape" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.28%chance

4369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

952

US President states on video that COVID likely escaped from WIV, any time through 2026

Sep 22, 7:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.12%chance

8112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

122

An escaped population of cockatoos (any species) will establish itself in the US with >20 individuals by 2035

Apr 9, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.99%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

Will longevity escape velocity happen earlier for palm cockatoos than for hyacinth macaws?

Feb 5, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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