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Prediction markets for Escapism

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.53%chance

15714816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2205

2197

Will SBF escape from prison?

Dec 14, 1:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.98%chance

2914505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2595

918

Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2027?

Dec 29, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.6%chance

183243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3069

326

Will GPT-4 escape?

Mar 17, 8:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5.05%chance

292638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2159

883

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky reveal the text of the conversations from the AI box escape experiment by the end of 2030?

May 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.88%chance

232149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

367

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030?

Jul 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

9790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

358

169

Will "Maya's Escape" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.28%chance

4369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

952

Someone literally Factorios themselves by building a rocket and escaping a planet or moon before 2100?

Oct 19, 5:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

7134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

93

US President states on video that COVID likely escaped from WIV, any time through 2026

Sep 22, 7:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.21%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

115

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