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Essential Space News
Prediction markets for Essential Space
Prediction markets for Essential Space
Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?
Jun 20, 12:28 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
8.7%
chance
16
1969
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1919
765
Is the universe infinite in extent?
Jan 17, 10:08 PM
Feb 5, 10:59 PM
55.47%
chance
35
1606
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1204
617
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
52.08%
chance
8
132
Option
Votes
NO
YES
265
178
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PM
Dec 31, 11:43 PM
2
130
Option
Probability
2029
2027
49
39
Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?
Dec 3, 4:22 PM
1
0
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