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Prediction markets for ET

Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025?

Jan 21, 3:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.86%chance

108170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7291

158

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

18.07%chance

443696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

841

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

🌌👽🌌 What is ET's star sign? 🌌👽🌌

Mar 3, 5:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4317

OptionProbability

Aries ♈

Gemini ♊

Cancer ♋

Leo ♌

Virgo ♍

Scorpio ♎

Capricorn ♑

Aquarius ♒

Pisces ♓

Taurus ♉

Libra ♎

Sagittarius ♐

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

Will Charles III of the UK et al meet a senior Taiwanese leader before the end of his reign?

Aug 17, 10:00 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

44.11%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

117

Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?

Feb 17, 3:37 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

23.84%chance

577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

69

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

Will "Contra Ngo et al. “Every ‘Every Bay Area Hous..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.78%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

65

Will >50% of Jose Luis Ricon+Chelsea Voss gene pairings have a IQ PRS score of > +1.68 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.95%chance

449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will >50% of Razib Khan+Chelsea Voss gene pairings have a IQ PRS score of > +2.18 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will low-concentration cryoprotectant preserve brain rhythms in a replication study of Suda et al. 1966?

May 15, 7:30 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

50.89%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

88

Will Stephen Hsu have a IQ PRS score of > +1.68 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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