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Prediction markets for ET News

Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?

Jun 15, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

5512739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3895

257

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Will more than 100 people in NYC get Ebola in 2025?

Feb 16, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.2%chance

2311886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22785

9667

Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?

Jul 30, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

8510745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3091

324

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.09%chance

124921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5899

3086

Will LGBTQ+ content online be legally censored in the US before 2026?

Jan 30, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

353804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

769

Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?

Mar 26, 9:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

172695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

194

Klarna IPO in 2025?

May 20, 5:34 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

50.38%chance

151643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

994

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will Hunter Biden still be alive on December 31, 2025?

Dec 3, 4:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91.88%chance

21870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

336

30

Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?

Apr 11, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.25%chance

8153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

177

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