OptionProbability
5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.
6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.
10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.
2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).
9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.
3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.
4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.
7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.
8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.
1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.
94
66
64
62
55
47
45
27
13
11
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2582
1615
25 Weekly AI Posts (AI#121 is published)
5 Childhood and Education Posts (C&E#12 is published)
52 Weekly AI Posts (AI#148 is published)
12 Monthly Roundups (Monthly Roundup #37 is published)
5 Writing Posts (On Writing #5 is published)
5 Medical Roundups (Medical Roundup #8 is published)
10 Childhood and Education Posts (C&E#17 is published)
Publishes a comprehensive review of the EU AI Act
Reviews Open Socrates by Agnes Callard
Reviews Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson
100
59
50
41
37
33
31
Aleph Alpha
Amazon
Anthropic
Cohere
Google
Microsoft
Mistral
OpenAI
IBM
Apple
Conjecture
Adobe
HuggingFace
Midjourney
Meta
91
83
42
26
0
197
51
187
80
128
78
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