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Prediction markets for European elections

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14956

OptionProbability

<4

4-6

7-10

11-14

>14

35

35

28

2

0

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

By 2030, Europeans can buy a 4-door electric vehicle with 350km range for under €23k

Aug 20, 9:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

945

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.66%chance

6332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.59%chance

7211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

63

Will any country use a new voting system for the 2029 EU election?

Jan 25, 7:56 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

49.76%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

133

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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