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Prediction markets for European elections

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1.61%chance

3919396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7809

128

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

13.04%chance

14975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.99%chance

10522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will the Japanese yen trade below 160 JPY/USD at the end of March 2026?

Jan 21, 8:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89%chance

6521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

35

By 2030, Europeans can buy a 4-door electric vehicle with 350km range for under €23k

Aug 20, 9:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

945

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.59%chance

7211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

63

Will any country use a new voting system for the 2029 EU election?

Jan 25, 7:56 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

49.76%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

133

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Mar 12, 8:03 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

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