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Prediction markets for European elections

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171041

OptionProbability

7-10

4-6

<4

11-14

>14

38

31

29

2

0

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

16769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

By 2030, Europeans can buy a 4-door electric vehicle with 350km range for under €23k

Aug 20, 9:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.74%chance

12519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

945

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will Poland leave European Union before 2030?

Mar 14, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.86%chance

11362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6151

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Never announces national elections

Other

March 15 - April 15, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

48

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

Will any country use a new voting system for the 2029 EU election?

Jan 25, 7:56 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

49.76%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

133

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