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Top stories

Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks

US Foreign Policy

Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for European parties

Twitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates

Mar 9, 5:13 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

144482

OptionProbability

July 1 2033

July 1 2034

July 1 2040

July 1 2039

July 1 2032

July 1 2035

July 1 2036

July 1 2037

July 1 2038

Jan 1 2031

July 1 2031

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

Jan 1 2030

July 1 2030

Jan 1 2028

July 1 2028

July 1 2027

April 1 2027

Jan 1 2027

Oct 1 2026

July 1 2026

April 1 2026

July 1 2025

Oct 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

56

56

52

51

50

50

50

50

50

49

49

48

48

48

48

45

45

42

41

39

32

28

13

1

1

1

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

13.04%chance

14975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14956

OptionProbability

<4

4-6

7-10

11-14

>14

35

35

28

2

0

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.82%chance

5946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1572

636

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12%chance

15574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Mar 31, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.2%chance

19556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

850

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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