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Top stories

Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks

US Foreign Policy

Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks

Authors

11

7 months ago

Prediction markets for European parties

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171041

OptionProbability

7-10

4-6

<4

11-14

>14

38

31

29

2

0

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

13.04%chance

14975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.82%chance

5946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1572

636

Next Danish Election: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read description]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

6636

OptionProbability

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Green Left

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Social Democrats & Moderates

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

80

76

57

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

28

26

24

21

19

9

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Mar 31, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.2%chance

19556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

850

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

How many seats will Tisza party win in 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Mar 14, 8:41 PMApr 12, 9:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

105 - 109

110 - 114

120 - 129

115 - 119

0 - 79

80 - 89

90 - 99

100 - 104

130 - 139

140-199

18

16

15

14

6

6

6

6

6

6

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