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Prediction markets for European review

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.3%chance

6313398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

943

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.53%chance

284174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

395

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.63%chance

61060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.73%chance

12716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?

May 18, 9:55 AMMay 15, 7:00 PM

9.84%chance

10217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

303

33

Will Ingvar Carlsson live to 100?

Jul 17, 3:38 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

36.07%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

17

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

81

Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking

Jul 23, 8:37 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

2 french players in the top 5

At least 7 PSG players nominated

The top 3 contains players from 3 different leagues

The top 10 contains at least 3 midfielders

At least 6 defenders are nominated

50

50

50

50

50

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