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Prediction markets for European review

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.53%chance

6012930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

948

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.53%chance

284174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

395

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.5%chance

51054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.17%chance

8301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

50

Will victor orban flee to US by EOY2028?

Apr 12, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

13223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

10176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?

May 18, 9:55 AMMay 15, 7:00 PM

20%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Discovered tracing mecanisems on gpt in june

Jun 16, 6:34 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

66

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