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Prediction markets for European review

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

76.02%chance

6514148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1660

648

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.52%chance

294175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2529

395

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.54%chance

22501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3501

286

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.46%chance

61093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?

May 18, 9:55 AMMay 15, 7:00 PM

9.71%chance

12391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.48%chance

9309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

46

Will Gianni Infantino be re-elected as FIFA President in 2027?

Oct 18, 6:32 PMMar 31, 10:00 PM

42.39%chance

11299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Will Loreen win the Melodifestivalen 2027 selection?

Aug 9, 9:00 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

49%chance

6208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

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