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Prediction markets for European review

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

66.88%chance

6313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

793

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.53%chance

284174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

395

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.46%chance

61093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

FIFA President be sacked?

Jul 29, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.56%chance

18959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?

May 18, 9:55 AMMay 15, 7:00 PM

9.71%chance

12391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.48%chance

9309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

46

Will Ingvar Carlsson live to 100?

Jul 17, 3:38 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

36.07%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will Loreen win the Melodifestivalen 2027 selection?

Aug 9, 9:00 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

3135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

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