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EV News

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

16%chance

5313762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1964

564

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

80.06%chance

152799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2005

499

Will "New Endorsements for “If Anyone Builds It, Ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 18, 5:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.17%chance

62127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3112

831

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Apr 26, 5:43 AMDec 31, 6:39 AM

37.76%chance

101335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

789

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.25%chance

221018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

922

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

70.1%chance

10941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1531

653

In what year will EVs surpass gas cars' cost/convenience for road trips?

Mar 28, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

2027

After 2030

2028

2029

2030

2026

2025

22

19

18

15

13

12

1

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

What percent of EV batteries will be manufactured in China in 2026?

Sep 26, 12:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5153

OptionProbability

More than 67% and less than 75%

Between 60% and 67%, inclusive

Between 75% and 83%, inclusive

More than 83% and less than 90%

More than 50% and less than 60%

90% or more

Between 0% and 50%, inclusive

47

14

14

8

7

6

4

Will NIO (chinese EV company) go bankrupt before 2030?

Sep 22, 11:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

109

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