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Prediction markets for EV

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20%chance

5311998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

627

Will the Federal EV tax credit be repealed in 2025?

Nov 9, 7:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

92.42%chance

124388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3492

286

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

78.55%chance

20868

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

960

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Apr 26, 5:43 AMDec 31, 6:39 AM

52.83%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will Chinese EV make for more than 45% of new cars in 2027?

Jan 21, 8:57 PMJan 28, 10:59 PM

88.55%chance

3140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

53

In what year will EVs surpass gas cars' cost/convenience for road trips?

Mar 28, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3124

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will "New Endorsements for “If Anyone Builds It, Ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 18, 5:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Major EV manufacturer announces 10%+ layoffs in 2025?

Jun 7, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.03%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

110

Will Viraj Chhajed (aka Viraj Cz) win emergent ventures (EV) by EOY 2026?

Jan 1, 4:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.98%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

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