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Prediction markets for EV

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

5613897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

605

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

74.87%chance

132850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1726

579

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

80.06%chance

152824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2005

499

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Apr 26, 5:43 AMDec 31, 6:39 AM

68.91%chance

132488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

680

Will "New Endorsements for “If Anyone Builds It, Ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 18, 5:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.17%chance

62127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3112

831

Will Tesla announce the “Model 2” (sub-$30k EV) before July 1, 2026?

Nov 27, 2:48 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.88%chance

161503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

722

14

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77.63%chance

231068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

972

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Chinese EVs manufactured in Canada?

Apr 2, 3:04 AMApr 9, 3:01 AM

48.76%chance

12481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

808

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will Natural graphite share of EV lithium-ion battery anode material by mass exceed 70 percent on June 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:18 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

55.39%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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