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Prediction markets for EV

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.42%chance

5313221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

603

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

81.51%chance

132619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2101

476

Will "New Endorsements for “If Anyone Builds It, Ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 18, 5:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.83%chance

41001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1986

894

EV market share in 2030?

Apr 22, 5:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16985

OptionProbability

20-24

16-20

24-28

28-32

12-16

32-36

36-40

40-44

0-4

4-8

8-12

44-48

48-52

52-56

56-60

60-64

64-68

68-72

72-76

76-80

80-84

84-88

88-92

92-96

96-100

100-104

37

27

18

11

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.42%chance

22968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

934

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Apr 26, 5:43 AMDec 31, 6:39 AM

37.76%chance

9935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

789

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

65.02%chance

8737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

733

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

What percent of EV batteries will be manufactured in China in 2026?

Sep 26, 12:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5153

OptionProbability

More than 67% and less than 75%

Between 60% and 67%, inclusive

Between 75% and 83%, inclusive

More than 83% and less than 90%

More than 50% and less than 60%

90% or more

Between 0% and 50%, inclusive

47

14

14

8

7

6

4

Will the 7automaker group (see desc) install at least 30,000 EV charging stations in the US/Canada by December 31, 2030?

Jul 27, 3:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

85.47%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

111

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