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Prediction markets for Events

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

236230

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

0.1M-10M

>1000M but not all of humanity

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

42

13

13

12

11

9

Will Pickleball be an official Olympic event before the first female president of the United States ?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.77%chance

472035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2495

1676

LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software

May 28, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.82%chance

81521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

705

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM

56.16%chance

17891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

884

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Sep 4, 12:14 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

33.99%chance

11811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

718

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

Sep 5, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

8638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

When will Mixpanel have a liquidity event?

Apr 14, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3155

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2024-2025

2025-2026

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2049-2050

2050-2051

2051-2052

2052-2053

2053-2054

2054-2055

2055-2056

2056-2057

2057-2058

2058-2059

2059-2060

2060-2061

19

19

19

19

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will all comic con events go on in 2027?

Nov 3, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, all scheduled Comic-Con events worldwide will proceed without cancellation in 2027

No, at least one major Comic-Con event will be canceled or postponed in 2027

No, all Comic-Con events will be cancelled or postponed in 2027

50

50

50

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