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Prediction markets for Events

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

In the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?

Jun 6, 8:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

225930

OptionProbability

0.001M-0.1M

>1000M but not all of humanity

0.1M-10M

10M-1000M

Other

All of humanity

41

14

13

12

11

9

Will there be a notable book-burning event on a US college campus before 2030?

Dec 13, 8:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.86%chance

462859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

869

Will Pickleball be an official Olympic event before the first female president of the United States ?

Dec 26, 3:45 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.77%chance

472035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2495

1676

If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?

Jun 12, 8:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.71%chance

141561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1517

659

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?

May 7, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.03%chance

241250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

469

If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?

Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.04%chance

11918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM

56.16%chance

17891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

884

Will there be another UFC event at the Las Vegas Sphere after UFC 306 by 2050?

Sep 5, 9:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

8638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will any scenes of The White Lotus season 4 be set at a Bilderberg Conference (or similar) event?

Mar 31, 4:38 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

29.36%chance

7551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will UFC host another event in the MSG Sphere in last Vegas before 2028?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.68%chance

2151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

874

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