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Prediction markets for everyone

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 9:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

667690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

615283

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Other

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Drones or other macro robots

Chemical weapons

23

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8

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6

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will "“If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” release day!" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 7:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.28%chance

52850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3850

803

Will the Three Body Problem netflix series turn everyone into femboys?

May 8, 5:13 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

37%chance

341914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

503

Will "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Call for ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 5:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.2%chance

10955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

901

Will "Everyone has a plan until they get lied to th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 15, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.14%chance

5630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

924

Will "A non-review of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyon..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 11:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.39%chance

5285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

981

Will Twitter/X go bankrupt before everyone calls it X?

Mar 7, 4:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.58%chance

15272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

868

Will "If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies, a semi-out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 14, 2:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

3105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

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