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Prediction markets for Everything Risk

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

50

25

20

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

0

0

0

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

95.94%chance

215007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

Highest oil price in Sep-EOY 2026

Sep 3, 3:03 AMSep 3, 3:59 AM

9522

OptionProbability

Above 100

Above 110

Above 120

Above 130

Above 140

100

99

71

27

13

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Will any space agency intentionally deflect an asteroid that would otherwise have impacted Earth by August 1, 2034?

Aug 1, 8:47 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

12208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

When will it be possible to spend $10 million or less to edit your genes to require less sleep?

Aug 12, 12:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4132

OptionProbability

2041-2047

2048-2054

2034-2040

2055-2061

2062-2068

2069-2075

2076-2082

2083-2089

2090-2099

2027-2033

15

15

13

10

8

8

8

8

8

7

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

3122

OptionProbability

NO

YES

285

169

Before 2035, will evidence indicate BPC-157’s side effects make it not-recommended for musculoskeletal injury recovery?

Jun 28, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)

Jun 13, 11:45 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.03%chance

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

250

250

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