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Prediction markets for Everything Risk

Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?

Oct 30, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

96.45%chance

194936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

927

State of the Union Address 2026

Mar 5, 4:19 AMMar 6, 4:59 AM

222103

OptionProbability

State of the Union address is given by Trump

Ukraine is mentioned

President wearing a tie with any red

President will get heckled or booed

Someone in audience holds up prop during speech

Putin will be mentioned by name

"Israel" will be mentioned

5 or more people coordinate outfits

Non-US World Leader in attendance

Elon Musk is in attendance

US territory is mentioned

"Hamas" will be mentioned

AOC is in attendance

Supreme Court Justices clap in response to at least one thing

Someone is removed from the chamber during the speech

2026 State of the Union address is canceled

No elected Democrats in attendance

93

76

73

69

65

63

61

59

59

55

50

45

44

39

33

12

6

Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?

Apr 17, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.32%chance

291710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024

Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

3122

OptionProbability

NO

YES

285

169

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)

Jun 13, 11:45 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.03%chance

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

250

250

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

00

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