Exactly AI News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

16706

12559

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

128119885

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Zohran Mamdani

Mark Carney

Xi Jinping

Epstein

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Jerome Powell

Jensen Huang

Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

[Next FOMC Chair]

Robots (not self driving cars)

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.52%chance

11215100

OptionVotes

YES

2033

597

What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?

Jan 6, 10:56 PMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

377484

OptionProbability

Improperly secured door plug

Improperly secured bolt or connector

Negligence by Boeing

Negligence by a Maintenance and Repair Contractor other than Alaska/Hawaiian Airlines

Negligence by Alaska Airlines

Negligence by a parts supplier (other than Boeing)

Unspecified general Design Flaw

Excessive cabin pressurization: fault in pressurization system, air pressure sensors or software controlling cabin pressure

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

4447

225

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

YES

1346

743

Will ZeroPath be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

18800

OptionVotes

YES

10042

9970

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

169

166

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Exactly AI News

Prediction markets for Exactly AI

Prediction markets for Exactly AI

Prediction markets for Exactly AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Will ZeroPath be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Latest stories