Exactly AI News
Prediction markets for Exactly AI
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
77.93%chance
506724947
OptionVotes
16828
12117
OptionProbability
27
24
12
10
7
6
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.67%chance
8149972
OptionVotes
28379
3002
What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?
Jan 6, 10:56 PMFeb 28, 10:59 PM
377484
OptionProbability
99
95
91
24
18
18
8
6
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.26%chance
346935
OptionVotes
5447
184
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
49.18%chance
466533
OptionVotes
1016
984
Will ZeroPath (YC S24) be inactive by 2028 (excl. acquisition)?
Jul 15, 9:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.87%chance
294995
OptionVotes
13673
8705
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.74%chance
353788
OptionVotes
1270
787
Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?
Feb 26, 2:28 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
58.66%chance
7345
OptionVotes
1112
813
If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)
Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.76%chance
8160
OptionVotes
169
166
Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?
Apr 22, 6:38 PMJan 20, 7:37 PM
59.42%chance
321
OptionVotes
121
83
Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026
Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.44%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95