Exchange Act News

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1.42%chance

2814452

OptionVotes

YES

8339

120

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62779

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Feb 15, 6:22 AMDec 31, 6:19 AM

232658

OptionProbability

Nothing other than the actual pizza food

Interactions with (incl. sexual exploitation of) underage girls

Child exploitation materials

Other

Adrenochrome

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Dec 9, 2:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

82247

OptionProbability

KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)

Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)

United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried

Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)

U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)

Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)

U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)

United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)

Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)

United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)

TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)

United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)

100

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

71788

OptionProbability

99 - 107

108 - 116

90 - 98

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

1074

957

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Sep 4, 12:14 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

33.99%chance

11811

OptionVotes

YES

1394

718

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

223

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

153

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

Oct 26, 10:10 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

66.89%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

142

Exchange Act News

Prediction markets for Exchange Act

Prediction markets for Exchange Act

Prediction markets for Exchange Act

Clarity Act will pass in September

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

What does pizza refer to in Epstein files (in addition to actual pizza food)?

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

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