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Prediction markets for Exchange Traded Notes

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7745148

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Manifold Mana

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Paperclips

TRUMP

63

31

24

20

9

8

8

8

8

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

35.43%chance

66790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20520

10809

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

30.83%chance

43501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13499

7975

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

26.76%chance

53018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1654

604

Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2028?

May 10, 8:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.23%chance

382722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2733

340

Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026?

Feb 19, 7:54 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

181392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

22752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

19

USD/CHF exchange rate 2026 July 31 16:00 UTC?

Jan 4, 5:45 AMJan 4, 9:59 PM

3210

OptionProbability

Above 0.50

Above 0.60

Above 0.70

Above 0.80

Above 0.90

95

90

76

50

17

Which year will the Nasdaq start trading 24/7?

Jun 28, 8:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8178

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2027

41

41

30

8

Will June 2026 U.S. export prices rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 9, 7:06 PMJul 17, 12:25 PM

72.44%chance

140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

80

Will June 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 9, 4:05 PMJul 17, 12:25 PM

67.88%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

84

Will July 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 15, 11:21 PMAug 18, 12:25 PM

58%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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