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Top stories

Germany’s July Ifo Business Climate Index at 88.6; UK Consumer Credit £1.417B and Mortgage Lending £5.34B Surge in June

Germany’s July Ifo Business Climate Index at 88.6; UK Consumer Credit £1.417B and Mortgage Lending £5.34B Surge in June

Authors

11

8 days ago

US Consumer Confidence Rises to 97.2 as Job Differential Hits Eight-Year Low

US Consumer Confidence Rises to 97.2 as Job Differential Hits Eight-Year Low

Authors

26

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Expectations

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4624367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?

Oct 31, 5:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29%chance

6712775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

936

Will NVDA's stock price move more than expected in 2025?

Jan 2, 3:53 PMDec 20, 4:59 AM

46.47%chance

126744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

Will life expectancy in any state of the US reach 85 years before end of 2035?

Apr 29, 5:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.5%chance

16651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.67%chance

8555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will life expectancy in any province of Spain reach 90 years before end of 2040?

Feb 22, 9:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

38.6%chance

6525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?

Mar 6, 10:33 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

872

Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?

Sep 1, 5:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.74%chance

5181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

975

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.5%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

914

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