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Prediction markets for Expectations
How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?
Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41130717
OptionProbability
26
21
20
18
17
11
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.86%chance
4852701
OptionVotes
2766
372
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
80.27%chance
4726263
OptionVotes
3926
1996
OptionVotes
1007
980
Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?
Sep 1, 5:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
25.07%chance
2510208
OptionVotes
1730
579
OptionVotes
986
951
Will life expectancy in any state of the US reach 85 years before end of 2035?
Apr 29, 5:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
36.06%chance
17736
OptionVotes
1332
751
Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?
Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
55.79%chance
9580
OptionVotes
1123
890
Will life expectancy in any province of Spain reach 90 years before end of 2040?
Feb 22, 9:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
36.77%chance
7575
OptionVotes
1311
763
Will worldwide life expectancy reach 75 years before 2030?
Mar 22, 12:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
49.74%chance
22512
OptionVotes
1086
889
Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?
Mar 6, 10:33 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
56.82%chance
5205
OptionVotes
1147
872
Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?
May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
54.5%chance
3105
OptionVotes
1095
914