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Top stories

US Consumer Confidence Dips to 97.4 but Tops Forecasts

US Consumer Confidence Dips to 97.4 but Tops Forecasts

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Expectations

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

81.18%chance

4726438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4084

1959

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?

Oct 31, 5:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32%chance

6913319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

980

Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?

Sep 1, 5:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.62%chance

2713137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

618

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 85 or above?

Oct 31, 5:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.7%chance

401702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

951

Will life expectancy in any state of the US reach 85 years before end of 2035?

Apr 29, 5:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

36.06%chance

17736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

751

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

53.82%chance

9616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

926

Will worldwide life expectancy reach 75 years before 2030?

Mar 22, 12:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.26%chance

24590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

842

Will life expectancy in any province of Spain reach 90 years before end of 2040?

Feb 22, 9:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

36.77%chance

7575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?

Mar 6, 10:33 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

872

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.5%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

914

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