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Prediction markets for Expected Points Added

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.84%chance

674714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

860

Will flagship LLMs begin integrating advertisements into their responses before 2026?

Apr 12, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.51%chance

621743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

70

53

51

37

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Feb 24, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.86%chance

18336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

909

Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?

Apr 14, 1:10 AMDec 3, 12:00 PM

20.94%chance

9211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

117

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

22.43%chance

4110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey

Feb 24, 4:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.18%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

129

Between 2024 and 2030, how many people will be temporarily or permanently displaced by floods in the Netherlands?

Mar 3, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

341

OptionProbability

0 - 9 999

10 000 - 99 999

100 000 - 999 999

1 000 000 or more

49

17

17

17

How pro-trans agenda are you?

Jan 9, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1300

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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