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Prediction markets for Experiences

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

60.7%chance

15248690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

461

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.79%chance

37432761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2925

1788

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.17%chance

6510917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3018

126

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

117430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8928

3471

Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?

Aug 12, 12:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

123045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.24%chance

11554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

889

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment find WIMPs before 2028?

Sep 13, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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