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Prediction markets for Experiences

Will Iran experience regime change in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

11.11%chance

259113202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2829

353

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.49%chance

14844993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2115

209

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.11%chance

11427985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2789

1417

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will the US experience martial law before 2026?

May 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

457472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

426

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.65%chance

384189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

1046

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.23%chance

151487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

1069

Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?

Aug 12, 12:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25%chance

9737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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