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Prediction markets for Experiences

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

69.11%chance

14946894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

360

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

66.48%chance

36731297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2675

1905

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.94%chance

599046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2817

146

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

162366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6197

4686

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

171558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

1020

Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?

Aug 12, 12:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.56%chance

111038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2028

493

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

10817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

805

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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