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Prediction markets for Experiences

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.76%chance

16164951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7935

468

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

73.95%chance

14846589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1745

307

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

62.01%chance

35930682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2387

2065

Will the US experience martial law before 2026?

May 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.97%chance

5614633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5800

187

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.72%chance

547747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

364

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.27%chance

161507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

1048

Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?

Aug 12, 12:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

101037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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