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Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?

Feb 11, 6:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.85%chance

416066

OptionVotes

YES

2538

835

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

1149

870

Will "EU explained in 10 minutes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 22, 5:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.37%chance

2850

OptionVotes

YES

1850

905

What explains the Hubble Tension

Jan 19, 3:13 PMJan 19, 3:06 PM

9489

OptionProbability

Evolving dark energy with time-dependent properties

Systematic errors in distance measurement techniques

Relativistic backreaction / timescape cosmology (breakdown of global FLRW averaging)

Early dark energy in the early universe

Local cosmic void (KBC void) around the Milky Way

Measurement errors in CMB calibration

Interactions between dark matter and dark energy

New relativistic particles in early universe

Rotating universe model

Vacuum phase transition in early universe

Modified gravity theory (MOND/Milgromian dynamics)

Non-zero spatial curvature of the universe

Year 3Blue1Brown uploads an explainer that is mostly AI-generated?

Dec 12, 9:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

9486

OptionProbability

Will not happen before 1 Jan 2029

2026

2027

2028

2025

2024

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

1089

949

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Mar 28, 6:07 AMMar 28, 6:05 AM

23.18%chance

8179

OptionVotes

YES

182

What explain(s) the CMB cold spot

Feb 1, 11:49 PMFeb 8, 11:39 PM

5173

OptionProbability

Supervoid (a huge void between us and the primordial CMB)

Statistical fluctuation within standard inflation

Foreground contamination from nearby galaxies

Primordial gravitational wave signatures

Cosmic strings or cosmic texture defects

Quantum entanglement imprint from another universe

Fortuitous match with Spherical Mexican Hat Wavelets

Does a light sterile neutrino explain any experimental physics anomalies?

Nov 24, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

8162

OptionVotes

YES

205

122

Will a 21st century scientific theory be explained in style of Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems by 2026

Apr 22, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

667

OptionVotes

YES

200

199

Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.21%chance

266

OptionVotes

YES

1045

764

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

1052

732

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Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Will "EU explained in 10 minutes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What explains the Hubble Tension

Year 3Blue1Brown uploads an explainer that is mostly AI-generated?

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

What explain(s) the CMB cold spot

Does a light sterile neutrino explain any experimental physics anomalies?

Will a 21st century scientific theory be explained in style of Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems by 2026

Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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