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Prediction markets for Explorers of AI

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

341138327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

782

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

77.52%chance

166102273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1834

224

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

172227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

By 2028 end, will there be AI-assisted therapy, where therapists visually explore a patient's thoughts/memories?

Jul 5, 4:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

16.92%chance

401789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

988

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5574

3482

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.63%chance

181450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

783

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4357

3816

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

We should explore this cryptography, security, or auxiliary area more for AI safety

Nov 14, 8:58 PM

90

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