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Prediction markets for explosion

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32%chance

2812360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

622

Will there be a nuclear explosion in USA in 2025?

Jan 2, 8:14 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

1.74%chance

309865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7524

133

1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"?

Aug 15, 4:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85945

OptionProbability

Explosion does not happen

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[20%, 30%)

[30%, 40%)

[40%, 50%)

>50%

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030

Feb 14, 10:47 AMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

72.22%chance

634045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1209

884

Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?

Jul 1, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.57%chance

282560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

924

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.79%chance

381185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

915

Explosive growth bet

Jul 28, 8:54 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

30.18%chance

161106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

969

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.33%chance

19598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

952

At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:16 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.75%chance

24530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

927

At the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.49%chance

13225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

951

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.47%chance

15162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

966

Will "The Industrial Explosion" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 28, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.46%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

968

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