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Prediction markets for Export restrictions on

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

18.08%chance

263762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

835

Will the US permit China to buy B200 chips before the end of 2025?

Aug 6, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.8%chance

41379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

497

NVIDIA blocked from selling H20 chips to China at August end?

Jul 15, 7:35 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

221306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Jan 24, 10:25 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

81.69%chance

25901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

900

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.72%chance

6541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.8%chance

23513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

868

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Sep 20, 8:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.55%chance

8351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

907

Will the US sanctions on Russia be largely lifted before 2026?

Nov 9, 12:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.95%chance

13294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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