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Prediction markets for Expressive

Will a province or territory of Canada express an intent to join, or attempt to join the US before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

5.84%chance

305168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4017

249

Will Donald Trump express support for the 'nuclear option" of breaking legislative filibuster, before September 2025?

Aug 12, 1:30 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

6.78%chance

244600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3708

270

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

Will Elon Musk express support for Cape Independence by 2025?

Sep 23, 1:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.22%chance

113547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2752

740

Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?

Jun 1, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.02%chance

342899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

467

Will an elected US Federal official express that "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" before 2026?

Jul 3, 5:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.68%chance

152245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

745

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.74%chance

13659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

901

In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters?

Jun 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

144

Will JS Module Expressions reach stage 3 by 2026?

May 28, 9:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.74%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

821

Will statement expressions become part of the official ISO C Standard before 2028?

Dec 19, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

6138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

94

Will I ever get tired of eating Panda Express?

Mar 18, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.51%chance

895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

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