Extend Duration News

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

7394

4937

🚨UPDATE MARCH 2026🚨 Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026

Feb 18, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

4910126

OptionVotes

YES

1342

A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

Jan 3, 2:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

744460

OptionProbability

North America

Asia

Europe

Antarctica

Other

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

262000

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)

Feb 19, 8:35 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

34%chance

241524

OptionVotes

YES

347

180

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Dec 5, 2:45 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

74.3%chance

141260

OptionVotes

YES

1700

588

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Jan 6, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

281001

OptionVotes

YES

1040

976

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

1107

931

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Jan 9, 4:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6362

OptionProbability

Later than 2059 or never (question will close in 2060)

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2059

2024-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

Will Tetsuya Yamagami, Shinzo Abe's assassin, be free before the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 3:38 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

27.06%chance

7241

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

Jan 23, 4:17 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

51.48%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

1035

976

Extend Duration News

Prediction markets for Extend Duration

Prediction markets for Extend Duration

Prediction markets for Extend Duration

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

🚨UPDATE MARCH 2026🚨 Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026

A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)

Does drinking from plastic bottles actually cause negative health effects in humans by the best evidence in 2034?

Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Will Tetsuya Yamagami, Shinzo Abe's assassin, be free before the end of 2026?

Will Talmadge Johnson (Bryan Johnson's son) rebel against his father while they're both alive?

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