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Prediction markets for Extension

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

62434

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

66

24

9

2

Life Extension Velocity (LEV) - for every year we survive, we gain an extra year - by 2036?

Mar 11, 1:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.85%chance

131735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

415

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.29%chance

4904

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1467

681

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.78%chance

7677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1677

596

Will the player selected #1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft sign a contract extension with the team who draft him?

Mar 11, 11:08 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

42.3%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

876

When will phase 2 of the LA Metro D Line extension open?

Jan 7, 1:14 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

12512

OptionProbability

Before December 2027

Before September 2027

Before June 2027

Before March 2027

94

93

80

49

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.18%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

978

My SnitchBuddy Firefox extension reaches 20 premium users by end of 2026? 🐀

Nov 29, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.53%chance

5347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will TfL's planned Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

5267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

148

Will TfL's planned DLR Extension to Thamesmead go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.59%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

73

When will phase 3 of the LA Metro D Line extension open?

Apr 13, 10:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

391

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before Oct 2028

Before April 2028

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

83

72

66

66

49

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