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Prediction markets for Extension

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

May 6, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:37 PM

252899

OptionProbability

3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)

3.5 weeks+ (May 16th, 1am)

4 weeks+ (May 19th, 1pm)

4.5 weeks+ (May 23rd, 1am)

5 weeks+ (May 26th, 1pm)

5.5 weeks+ (May 30th, 1am)

6 weeks+ (June 2nd, 1pm)

6.5 weeks+ (June 6th, 1am)

7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)

7.5 weeks+ (June 13th, 1am)

84

77

67

61

56

54

52

47

42

38

Life Extension Velocity (LEV) - for every year we survive, we gain an extra year - by 2036?

Mar 11, 1:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.85%chance

131735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

415

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.92%chance

3894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

671

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1662

602

Will the player selected #1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft sign a contract extension with the team who draft him?

Mar 11, 11:08 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

42.3%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

876

When will phase 2 of the LA Metro D Line extension open?

Jan 7, 1:14 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

10476

OptionProbability

Before December 2027

Before September 2027

Before June 2027

Before March 2027

92

91

80

64

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.18%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

978

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will TfL's planned Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

5267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

148

Will reviving a cryonics patient be developed before life extension to 200 years?

Feb 19, 3:00 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

7163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

96

Is every finite group the Galois group of a field extension of the rationals?

Jan 24, 9:25 AMSep 18, 9:59 PM

76.35%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

56

Will the SMART sales tax extension on the June ballot pass?

Mar 23, 6:20 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

52.87%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

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