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Prediction markets for Extension

Life Extension Velocity (LEV) - for every year we survive, we gain an extra year - by 2036?

Mar 11, 1:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.85%chance

131735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

415

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

41469

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

50

34

12

4

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.92%chance

3894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

671

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1662

602

Will the player selected #1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft sign a contract extension with the team who draft him?

Mar 11, 11:08 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

42.3%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

876

When will phase 2 of the LA Metro D Line extension open?

Jan 7, 1:14 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

7370

OptionProbability

Before December 2027

Before September 2027

Before June 2027

Before March 2027

78

74

66

62

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

3350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will TfL's planned DLR Extension to Thamesmead go ahead?

Mar 11, 8:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.59%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

73

Will reviving a cryonics patient be developed before life extension to 200 years?

Feb 19, 3:00 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

7163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

96

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

94

Is every finite group the Galois group of a field extension of the rationals?

Jan 24, 9:25 AMSep 18, 9:59 PM

76.35%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

56

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