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Prediction markets for Extreme Pro

When will Apple announce the next Vision headset?

Feb 22, 6:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92593

OptionProbability

Q4 (Oct - Dec) 2025

2026 or later

Q3 (Jul - Sep) 2025

Q1 (Jan - Mar) 2024

Q2 (Apr - Jun) 2024

Q3 (Jul - Sep) 2024

Q4 (Oct - Dec) 2024

Q1 (Jan - Mar) 2025

Q2 (Apr - Jun) 2025

51

30

14

1

1

1

1

1

1

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.27%chance

622372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

645

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?

Aug 16, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.29%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

923

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Feb 24, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.86%chance

18336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

909

The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey

Feb 24, 4:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.18%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

129

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

640

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