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Prediction markets for Extreme Ultraviolet

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.49%chance

5815226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4143

241

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.14%chance

369939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

968

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM

15%chance

163326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7778

5347

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:57 PMFeb 27, 4:00 PM

83.77%chance

151091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

880

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?

May 11, 10:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

11761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

791

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Sep 20, 8:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.57%chance

14411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?

Mar 22, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

90

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