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Prediction markets for Fable

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

89.45%chance

265266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2912

343

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.21%chance

283763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

605

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?

Jul 14, 1:48 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

89.05%chance

161901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

285

35

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.18%chance

171530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

908

What version number will Anthropic's next Claude Fable model carry? (released by Nov 30, 2026)

Oct 30, 12:54 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

9853

OptionProbability

Fable 5.5

No new Fable model by Nov 30

Fable 5.2

Some other version number

Fable 6

82

11

3

3

0

Fable 5.5 VS GPT 6.2+ Astra: Which will I find better?

Nov 5, 1:32 AMDec 5, 1:32 AM

10656

OptionProbability

Fable 5.5

6.2+ Astra

57

43

Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 3:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.16%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

950

What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?

Jun 12, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.36%chance

17509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

98

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

5379

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

96

95

95

54

24

Will Astra 6.1+ be released before Fable 5.5+?

Nov 3, 5:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

14291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

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