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Prediction markets for FACE Act

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

57%chance

14568309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

706

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.21%chance

910109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3358

100

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

75.87%chance

293508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

915

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3239

689

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

91127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

571

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

3938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

Will a journalist in the U.S. face imprisonment or fines due to their professional activities before 2029?

Jan 6, 7:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.05%chance

12581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

18

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

Will I be conscripted against my will into the British military by 2030?

Jan 17, 4:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.68%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

100

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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