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Prediction markets for FACE Act

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

63.29%chance

12762585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

606

Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?

Mar 17, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.76%chance

6610228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3447

290

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

28.29%chance

213651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

628

Will Apple face regulatory action from the EU for failing to deploy Apple Intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:00 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

6.47%chance

333543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3802

263

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3255

688

Will a journalist in the U.S. face imprisonment or fines due to their professional activities before 2029?

Jan 6, 7:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.05%chance

12581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

18

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.12%chance

7537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

598

Will any US Congress member face any disciplinary action due to insider trading in 2025?

Apr 11, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.49%chance

12231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

36

When will Canada separate itself from the monarchy?

Mar 31, 1:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3175

OptionProbability

Not before King Charles has died/abdicated (not necessarily immediately)

By 2050

Not before Quebec declares independence

By 2040

Not before closing date

Before Quebec declares independence

While under King Charles

By 2030

In 2025

83

76

66

50

50

28

17

17

13

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2027

Oct 1, 7:00 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

79.18%chance

395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

51

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

Oct 26, 10:10 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

53.44%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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