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Prediction markets for Face of Base

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Communist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?

Jan 30, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.12%chance

588504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

511

Will Intel stock reach $100 by the end of 2026?

Jan 9, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

187809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

485

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

8721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

890

Winner of Democratic Primary for Michigans 13th District?

Oct 7, 1:45 AMAug 4, 12:59 AM

6246

OptionProbability

Donavan McKinney (State Rep since 2023)

Shri Thanedar (Incumbent U.S. Representative)

Other

59

39

2

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will there be a new mt. Rushmore marked with faces of Jose Luis ricon, Alexey guzey, basedbeffjezos, and qiaochu yuan

Jul 19, 11:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.82%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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