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Prediction markets for Fair AI

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7328392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2045?

Sep 27, 4:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

5525659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

939

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2040?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

6622180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

919

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

379414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1567

640

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.63%chance

529351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

635

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255760

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

32

28

14

12

7

4

2

1

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

898

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.83%chance

181437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

868

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

2923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3681

2100

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Dec 17, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

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