OptionProbability
By virtue of having a straight female president
By virtue of having a gay (or bisexual) male president
80
20
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1046
951
Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB
Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment
Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes
Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01
Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01
Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)
66
51
42
38
37
34
32
