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Prediction markets for FAIR Plan

[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.17%chance

530172037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.51%chance

2965039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19687

5079

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

2727416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

65.25%chance

1722896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13518

7480

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

52

38

6

4

If Trump wins, would he build 10 new cities on federal land?

Aug 27, 2:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

455734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4652

215

Has AI surpassed technical but non-mathematician humans at math?

Dec 13, 12:02 AMJan 11, 11:20 PM

24.6%chance

323532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

294

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

Jan 9, 8:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.18%chance

112545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2566

390

Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Jan 17, 6:48 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.2%chance

131739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

899

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

21.1%chance

91130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

868

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will Enhanced Game continue running till 2030?

Feb 1, 6:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.39%chance

11250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

891

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