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Prediction markets for FAIR Plan

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.12%chance

2236307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10893

9215

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

3128258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3135

319

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7110370

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2031

2035+

2032

2027

2033

2026

2034

2025

17

16

16

12

11

8

7

5

4

3

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.1%chance

4910232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1668

803

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.89%chance

338786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

872

If Trump wins, would he build 10 new cities on federal land?

Aug 27, 2:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

455734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4652

215

Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Jan 17, 6:48 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.31%chance

131790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

901

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.93%chance

231247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will the next Russian Presidential election take place in 2030?

Mar 18, 11:44 AMMar 18, 11:59 PM

58.29%chance

9433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

181

Will Enhanced Game continue running till 2030?

Feb 1, 6:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.39%chance

11250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

891

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