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Prediction markets for FAIR Plan

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.14%chance

2236311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10897

9212

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.51%chance

3128309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

324

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7510702

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2035+

2031

2027

2032

2033

2026

2034

2025

18

16

14

14

10

9

7

5

4

3

0

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1779

781

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.64%chance

359309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1482

677

If Trump wins, would he build 10 new cities on federal land?

Aug 27, 2:45 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

455734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4652

215

Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Jan 17, 6:48 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.31%chance

131790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

901

Will Yekaterina Duntsova be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?

Dec 21, 7:04 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.03%chance

121538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1526

932

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Enhanced Game continue running till 2030?

Feb 1, 6:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.39%chance

11250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

891

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

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