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Prediction markets for Fair Use

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.43%chance

282109561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

902

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

5.05%chance

170108886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89111

5759

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.87%chance

3328342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

349

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

4110178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

486

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

43.59%chance

111577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11377

8790

Can the public ride in a waymo or similar in Dec 2027 in NYC?

Apr 11, 2:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.32%chance

101563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

551

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?

Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

15332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

986

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