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Prediction markets for Fair Use

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

50.56%chance

28344154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

856

Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?

Feb 25, 4:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

7041903

OptionProbability

United States vs. Iran

Insurgencies in Pakistan

Insurgencies in Iran

Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts

Iraqi Conflict

Insurgencies in India

India vs. Pakistan

Russian Civil Conflict

China vs. Taiwan

United States Civil Conflict

100

81

68

46

31

28

17

15

11

4

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

5%chance

12828388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7285

1681

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.75%chance

3028208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

269

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62%chance

12753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?

Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

15332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

986

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