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Prediction markets for Fair Use

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

733

Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?

Feb 25, 4:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

7857639

OptionProbability

Insurgencies in Iran

United States vs. Iran

Insurgencies in Pakistan

Iraqi Conflict

Insurgencies in India

India vs. Pakistan

Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts

China vs. Taiwan

Russian Civil Conflict

United States Civil Conflict

100

100

81

23

20

13

13

8

5

4

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

Nov 4, 9:58 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

49.08%chance

28444424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

885

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.51%chance

3128309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

324

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.64%chance

359309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1482

677

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

45.16%chance

61220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11020

9075

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Can the public ride in a waymo or similar in Dec 2027 in NYC?

Apr 11, 2:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.51%chance

8916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

13894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

924

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?

Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

15332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

986

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