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Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?

Feb 25, 4:47 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

8363643

OptionProbability

Insurgencies in Iran

United States vs. Iran

Insurgencies in Pakistan

Insurgencies in India

Iraqi Conflict

Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts

India vs. Pakistan

China vs. Taiwan

Russian Civil Conflict

United States Civil Conflict

100

100

92

18

14

9

8

7

6

3

Will Tesla's Cybercab be released by 2030 with a sticker price of $30,000 or less?

Dec 1, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.87%chance

3328342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

349

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9217483

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

17

11

9

8

7

6

4

3

2

0

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

501

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Can the public ride in a waymo or similar in Dec 2027 in NYC?

Apr 11, 2:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.32%chance

101563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

551

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

44.24%chance

101427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11227

8907

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?

Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

15332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

986

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