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Prediction markets for Fair Use for AI

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7510702

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2035+

2031

2027

2032

2033

2026

2034

2025

18

16

14

14

10

9

7

5

4

3

0

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

379414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1567

640

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.11%chance

577494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4363

525

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Where will I live in October 2026?

Apr 24, 6:30 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

61834

OptionProbability

Other

Menlo Park, CA

Berkeley, CA

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

Oakland, CA

Warren's Gore, VT

San Jose, CA

24

16

15

15

12

11

4

4

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

48.83%chance

221160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

13894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

924

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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