Fair Use for AI News

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9319174

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2035+

2030

2031

2026

2032

2033

2034

2025

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

YES

2003

501

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM

148605

OptionProbability

4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

100

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

95.71%chance

577515

OptionVotes

YES

4802

504

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.04%chance

385427

OptionVotes

YES

3399

297

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

2032

492

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Sep 9, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.59%chance

71205

OptionVotes

YES

1985

843

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

1368

731

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

Mar 21, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

15451

OptionVotes

YES

105

Fair Use for AI News

Prediction markets for Fair Use for AI

Prediction markets for Fair Use for AI

Prediction markets for Fair Use for AI

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Will any of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved with zero to minimal AI use?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

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