Faithful News
Prediction markets for Faithful
OptionProbability
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉
Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉
Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉🥉🥈
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Dog - Canis familiaris
Cat - Felis catus
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Triceratops - Triceratops horridus
Kiwi - Apteryx australis
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
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OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Use Iodized salt
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Add slurs to it
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Make banana bread
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make the bread taste good
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Bake for 15 more minutes
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Taste the bread
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Brush on an egg wash
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Strawberry jelly filling
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use lemonade instead of water.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
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What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
OptionProbability
Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
Evan permabanned from Manifold
Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025
Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"
Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations
Charlie Kirk dies
Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026
South Park does an episode that alludes to it
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.
Another political assassination (either side)
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments
Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.
NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired
Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.
Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting
South Park episode canceled (not delayed)
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.
The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson
"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals
Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol
Information reward money paid
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated
Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down
arson attack against gender clinic
A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.
At least one furry convention canceled
Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination
Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.
TPUSA supports a gun control bill
Any Democratic politician is arrested
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"
Any news organization is shut down
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.
A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed
80s-style moral panic over furries
Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.
"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns
Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.
Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US
Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law
At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.
Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership
National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)
Kash Patel fired
South Park canceled
Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad
Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store
America becomes a one-party GOP state.
5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12
Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
5241
191
OptionProbability
Brooke Jowett
Cameron Quashie
Lottie Rae
Mark Warnock
Blanche Cruz
Jackson Goonrey
Keeley Jenkinson
Richard Skimin
Sally Foord
Simon Mee
Caleb Beeby
Lauren "Loz" Mac
Ben Davis
Aisha Washington
Cat Hooker
Daniel Lindberg
Don Rogers
Eliza Reilly
Faith Setiawan
Harry Hills
Johnson Ashak
Lyndl Kean
Paula Drew
Tez Vlamis
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1
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
474
21
Sam Harris will confess faith in Jesus Christ as Lord before 2042
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1773
900
Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1785
907
OptionProbability
OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak
He was fired
He leaked non-trivial information
The leak was not in bad faith
The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama
There will be related legal action against him
The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)
The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya
The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI
He was going to quit
The firing meaningfully relates to Q*
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60
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39
30
27
25
8
OptionVotes
YES
NO
162
62
Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?
OptionProbability
Other
Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)
Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)
Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)
Ezekiel 38-39 War (Gog and Magog invasion of Israel)
Rise of a One-World Government (Revelation 13)
Mark of the Beast (Revelation 13:16-18)
Increase in Natural Disasters (Luke 21:11)
Jewish Return to Israel (Ezekiel 36-37)
Rise of Anti-Semitism (Zechariah 12:2-3)
Increase in Knowledge and Travel (Daniel 12:4)
Apostasy and Falling Away from Faith (2 Timothy 3:1-5)
Peace Treaty with Israel (Daniel 9:27)
Euphrates River Drying Up (Revelation 16:12)
Signs in the Sun, Moon, and Stars (Luke 21:25)
Rise of False Prophets (Matthew 24:11)
All of the above
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