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Faithful News

    Prediction markets for Faithful

    What is Quroe's favorite animal?

    Dec 14, 11:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
    6543187

    OptionProbability

    Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈

    Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina

    Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉

    Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉

    Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉🥉🥈

    Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

    Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus

    Dog - Canis familiaris

    Cat - Felis catus

    Tiger - Panthera tigris

    Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus

    Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

    Lion - Panthera leo 🥈

    Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum

    Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

    Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈

    Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈

    Wolverine - Gulo gulo

    Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

    Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias

    Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

    Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

    Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima

    Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

    Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

    Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti

    Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana

    Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

    Triceratops - Triceratops horridus

    Kiwi - Apteryx australis

    Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

    House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

    Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus

    Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria

    Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉

    Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉

    Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana

    Coyote - Canis latrans

    Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus

    Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx

    Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla

    Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

    Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉

    Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus

    ❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

    ❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

    ❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

    ❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

    🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

    ❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

    🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

    🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

    ❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

    ❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

    ❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

    ❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

    ❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    ❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

    ❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

    ❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

    ❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

    ❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

    🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

    ❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

    Other

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    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMMar 29, 10:36 PM
    29040767

    OptionProbability

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    put butter into it

    Toast the bread

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Half yeast

    Bake it with your best friend.

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Increase water by 50 g

    it needs more salt

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

    Serve the bread hot

    Do a second rise

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

    Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

    Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

    Add garlic

    Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

    Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

    Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

    put ketchup and cheese on it

    Use Iodized salt

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

    Add slurs to it

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Make banana bread

    Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

    Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

    Make the bread taste good

    Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

    If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

    Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

    Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

    Watch the video

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Cut bread into loaves before serving

    Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

    Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

    Bake for 15 more minutes

    Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

    Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

    Taste the bread

    throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

    Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

    Use a convection oven/setting

    Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

    Brush on an egg wash

    Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

    Only use tap water from specifically New York City

    Make the bread great again

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    Bake one more minute

    Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

    Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

    A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

    Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Replace salt with sugar

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

    Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

    Strawberry jelly filling

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Improve the bread

    Quadruple salt

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Add caffeine to the bread

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Test/filter the water for heavy metals

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    make the bread bounce

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Double oven temperature

    Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

    Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Halve oven temperature

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Step on it

    Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

    say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Replace flour with flowers

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Bake in rectangular tin

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Play classical music while baking

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Bake vodka into it

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Bake the bread with love

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    Add 50g sugar

    Add 50g honey

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Add banana

    Add poppy seeds

    Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

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    OptionProbability

    Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

    Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

    Evan permabanned from Manifold

    Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

    Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

    Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

    Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

    Charlie Kirk dies

    Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

    government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

    Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

    South Park does an episode that alludes to it

    event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

    Another political assassination (either side)

    At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

    At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

    Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

    NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

    Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

    South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

    Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

    The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

    event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

    "Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

    Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

    Information reward money paid

    high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

    Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

    arson attack against gender clinic

    A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

    At least one furry convention canceled

    Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

    Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

    TPUSA supports a gun control bill

    Any Democratic politician is arrested

    5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

    Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

    Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

    Any news organization is shut down

    Any left-wing NGO is shut down

    A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

    A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

    80s-style moral panic over furries

    Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

    "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

    Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

    Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

    Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

    At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

    Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

    National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

    Kash Patel fired

    South Park canceled

    Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

    Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

    America becomes a one-party GOP state.

    5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

    Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)

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    Will Richard Dawkins ever convert to faith?

    Aug 14, 12:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    3.51%chance
    234461

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5241

    191

    Who will win Australian Survivor: Redemption 2026?

    Feb 22, 9:42 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM
    24021

    OptionProbability

    Brooke Jowett

    Cameron Quashie

    Lottie Rae

    Mark Warnock

    Blanche Cruz

    Jackson Goonrey

    Keeley Jenkinson

    Richard Skimin

    Sally Foord

    Simon Mee

    Caleb Beeby

    Lauren "Loz" Mac

    Ben Davis

    Aisha Washington

    Cat Hooker

    Daniel Lindberg

    Don Rogers

    Eliza Reilly

    Faith Setiawan

    Harry Hills

    Johnson Ashak

    Lyndl Kean

    Paula Drew

    Tez Vlamis

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    Will the Faithful win UK Traitors 2026?

    Jan 4, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.27%chance
    91750

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    474

    21

    Sam Harris will confess faith in Jesus Christ as Lord before 2042

    Aug 17, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    4.96%chance
    191581

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1773

    900

    Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market

    Apr 11, 11:52 PMJul 6, 3:59 AM
    21892

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak

    He was fired

    He leaked non-trivial information

    The leak was not in bad faith

    The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama

    There will be related legal action against him

    The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)

    The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya

    The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI

    He was going to quit

    The firing meaningfully relates to Q*

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    8

    Skibidi Toilet movie faithful to the original series?

    Sep 8, 3:15 AMSep 8, 3:12 AM
    27.48%chance
    6114

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    162

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    OptionProbability

    Other

    Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)

    Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)

    Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)

    Ezekiel 38-39 War (Gog and Magog invasion of Israel)

    Rise of a One-World Government (Revelation 13)

    Mark of the Beast (Revelation 13:16-18)

    Increase in Natural Disasters (Luke 21:11)

    Jewish Return to Israel (Ezekiel 36-37)

    Rise of Anti-Semitism (Zechariah 12:2-3)

    Increase in Knowledge and Travel (Daniel 12:4)

    Apostasy and Falling Away from Faith (2 Timothy 3:1-5)

    Peace Treaty with Israel (Daniel 9:27)

    Euphrates River Drying Up (Revelation 16:12)

    Signs in the Sun, Moon, and Stars (Luke 21:25)

    Rise of False Prophets (Matthew 24:11)

    All of the above

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