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Prediction markets for Fal

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.77%chance

17422343077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11688

8911

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

57.19%chance

193358760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

866

Will Bitcoin trade above $400k before it falls below $40k?

Dec 25, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.69%chance

6658491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

677

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

90%chance

7917628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6472

4887

Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026?

Dec 6, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

355156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.14%chance

254183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4311

2277

Will the US dollar fall to 0.000004 BTC before 2030?

Apr 20, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

142806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

1098

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.31%chance

61585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5574

3482

Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 60 kt on May 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM

14.3%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2450

334

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

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